When Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, Polish farmer Miroslaw Halej wanted to help the refugees who flooded across the border near his village in eastern Poland. He helped distribute food and clothing. But as the war has ground on, his sympathy has given way to resentment — and he is far from alone in Europe.
Joining the European Union soon is an important aim for Ukraine as it tries to complete its exit from Moscow's orbit. Some European leaders have said they hope to welcome Ukraine into the bloc in the next few years. But in conversations with Reuters, more than a dozen diplomats and officials from EU states were privately more cautious, pointing to formidable obstacles Kyiv and the EU will have to overcome before Ukraine can join.
"You go around and you realise that, in many countries, politicians don't expect Ukraine to join in 10 years," said Gerald Knaus, chairman of the European Stability Initiative think tank. But any message that the EU is not serious about Ukraine's accession could have a demoralizing effect on the country "that nobody in Europe wants to see," Knaus added.
Public support has fallen sharply. Only 47 percent of EU residents say Ukraine should join in the coming years, down from 69 percent in March 2022, according to a survey published in October by Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German political foundation. In France and Poland, 57 percent of those polled opposed Ukrainian membership in the coming years. In Germany, the figure was 59 percent.
The hurdles are formidable. Even in straightforward cases, it takes years of negotiations and legal reforms for a candidate country to meet the EU's political, democratic and economic standards. Kyiv faces additional challenges such as uncertainty about the outcome of the war, a history of deep-rooted corruption and Ukraine's large size, which complicates the integration process. A candidate country's membership must be approved by all 27 EU states, and France would be likely to hold a referendum on Ukraine's membership bid.
Ukraine's pre-war population of about 40 million would probably make it the fifth or sixth biggest EU state, giving Kyiv substantial political clout, since EU decisions are taken by unanimity or by a voting system that gives more weight to larger members. Under current accession terms, Ukrainians would ultimately be free to move around the EU and work anywhere in it, and Ukraine would be eligible for substantial economic development grants from Brussels.
Farmers are among the most vocal opponents. Halej, 63, who grows wheat, beets, rapeseed and beans in Oszczow-Kolonia, a village of about 70 people some 280 kilometers southeast of Warsaw, has taken part in a series of Polish farmers' protests over Ukrainian grain imports. He voiced concern that Ukraine's large agricultural sector — which produces at much lower costs than farmers in the EU — could flood Europe with cheap farm produce. "The biggest worry is definitely that the prices of our products would drop," he said. "If there were a free market, we wouldn't stand a chance."
Far-right politicians are already highlighting the potential cost. France's Marine Le Pen, frontrunner for next year's presidential election, posted on X: "If Ukraine joined the European Union, we would be the first losers, doubly so," saying France would face "fierce unfair competition" and a cut to its share of EU farm subsidies. The Alternative for Germany, which leads opinion polls in Europe's biggest country, submitted a motion to parliament in September urging the government to rule out Ukraine's EU accession.
Such concerns have prompted several proposals to bring candidate countries closer to the EU before they join. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed giving Ukraine a new status of "associate member" to allow Ukrainian officials to take part in EU summits and ministerial meetings but not vote. Ukraine says the idea is unfair because it would leave Kyiv without a voice in the EU. The European Commission has suggested strengthening a policy of gradually integrating candidate countries into EU programs and economic sectors such as energy, transport, digital and defense once they meet criteria for each scheme, and imposing limits on financial support and market access for "sensitive agricultural products" from Ukraine.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said some skepticism in the EU was to be expected but added: "Getting Ukraine inside the European Union is beneficial for the European Union." He pointed to Ukraine's army: "This is not simply Ukraine asking to get inside. Ukraine has the most capable, battle-tested and combat-ready army on the continent — one million people." A senior European diplomat, speaking anonymously, said Ukraine's accession was not a realistic prospect in the next few years, and another said that with multiple national elections scheduled next year, many governments will be too busy to make the case for enlarging the bloc.
The United States is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO, so EU membership may be Kyiv's best hope of claiming a geopolitical victory when the war ends, political analysts say. The pursuit of EU membership is also an incentive for Kyiv to implement democratic reforms.
