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Day Five of Ukraine’s Cross-Border Offensive Against Russia

On the fifth day, Ukrainian forces continue to advance across the border and into the Kursk area of western Russia. As the operation is the largest Ukrainian incursion since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, it has garnered international attention and anxiety.

 

Russian Defense Ministry’s Response

The Ukrainian attack is “continuing to be repelled,” according to a Friday dispatch from the Russian Defense Ministry. The ministry claims that approximately 280 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the last 24 hours, yet this number has not been independently confirmed. The Russian military has moved more troops and heavy armor to the Kursk region in response to the ongoing offensive.

 

Concerns about International Escalation

Due to the battle’s dangerous proximity to the Kursk nuclear power plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has urged all parties to use “maximum restraint.” Rafael Grossi, the director of the IAEA, underlined the significance of averting any activities that can result in a nuclear disaster with catastrophic radioactive repercussions.

 

Local authorities have started evacuating residents from the Kursk region, with some groups arriving at Moscow’s central train station. Since there have been continuous bombs, one evacuee called the situation “terrible.” A counter-terrorist action has been declared by the local authorities, encompassing the surrounding regions of Bryansk and Belgorod. The operation involves mobility restrictions and the imposition of temporary evacuations.

 

Ukrainian Force Strikes on Russian Targets

Over 350 kilometers (217 miles) from the Ukrainian border, the Lipetsk airbase was the target of a successful strike, according to a report released by the Ukrainian military on Friday. A storehouse holding hundreds of glide bombs was destroyed in the operation, which also targeted the Su-34, Su-35, and MiG-31 jets from Russia. Residents of neighboring towns were evacuated after Russian officials announced a state of emergency and verified “detonations” at a “energy infrastructure facility.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War

In retaliation, Russia launched a strike on a shopping center in Kostyantynivka, a Ukrainian town near the frontlines in the Donetsk region. At least 14 people were killed and 43 injured in the attack, which also severely damaged cars, stores, and residential buildings.

 

Impact on the Ground and Reactions

Despite Russia’s efforts to suppress Ukrainian raid attempts, footage verified by the BBC shows a damaged and abandoned 15-vehicle Russian convoy near Oktyabrskoe, approximately 38 kilometers (24 miles) from the border. The video also reveals injured or possibly deceased Russian soldiers among the vehicles.

 

At the beginning of the offensive, Russia initially stated that up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops had infiltrated the Kursk region with the help of tanks and armored vehicles. However, Russia has found it difficult to stop the Ukrainian onslaught even after directing evacuations and deploying reserve forces.

 

Strategic and Economic Consequences

The invasion by the Ukrainians, which took Russia by surprise and raised public criticism of its military tactics, signifies a dramatic change in the nature of the war. Russia has largely controlled the path of the conflict for the last 18 months, but the current circumstances have forced Moscow to balance dealing with internal unrest with focusing on stopping the Ukrainian onslaught.

 

The Russian economy has also been affected by the offensive; on Friday, the value of the rouble fell 2.5% compared to the US dollar. The Kursk offensive by Ukraine has been blamed by traders for the currency’s drop.

 

Ukrainian and International Perspectives

President Volodymyr Zelensky has not directly addressed the attack, but he has said that “Russia has brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done,” despite the fact that Ukraine’s allies generally see the operation as a legitimate defense effort. The success and strategic significance of this attack are being keenly monitored as long as the Ukrainian forces are up against a more robust Russian military presence.

 

This operation, marking a bold move by Ukraine, underscores the ongoing volatility and complexity of the conflict, as well as the broader geopolitical implications for the region and beyond.

 

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