Quarterback Caleb Williams watched a video of the most memorable Bears moments shortly after the Chicago Bears selected him as the first overall choice on April 25. The movie, which was narrated by Hall of Fame linebacker Mike Singletary, celebrated Chicago’s iconic players and paved the way for Williams to become a famous player.
Though the Bears haven’t had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards or score 30 passing touchdowns in a season, the team has been missing a major milestone for decades. In an attempt to rewrite that story, Williams declared his optimism, adding, “We’re excited about what they told me is going to change.”
The Bears’ single-season passing record is 3,838 yards and 29 touchdowns, set by Erik Kramer in 1995. Jay Cutler, often considered the team’s best quarterback, leads in total passing yards but never surpassed 3,812 in a single season. As Williams embarks on his rookie year, could he be the one to break these records?
Caleb Williams’ Potential: Can He Break the Bears’ Passing Record?
The rookie quarterback has a solid chance. ESPN BET projects his first season to include 22.5 passing touchdowns and 3,451 yards. Given his background as a Heisman Trophy winner and his track record at USC, he is poised to make an impact. Still, the crucial question is whether he can throw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in his debut season.
In NFL history, just five rookie quarterbacks have accumulated more than 4,000 yards; among them are prominent figures like Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, and most recently, C.J. Stroud. Of those, Herbert was the only one to throw more than 30 touchdowns during his rookie year.
According to Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, Williams has the potential to exceed expectations if he stays healthy. “I think if Caleb can stay healthy, he will throw for well over 4,000 yards,” Aikman said, expressing confidence in the young star.
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Reasons for Optimism: Why Caleb Williams Could Break Bears’ Passing Curse
Though the team hasn’t had many successful quarterbacks, there are grounds to think Williams might be the exception. Three important elements might combine to make Williams the first-ever 4,000-yard passer for the Bears:
1. A Trio of No. 1 Receivers
Williams has a stronger set of offensive weapons than any Bears quarterback before him. Erik Kramer, in his record-setting season, relied heavily on two receivers: Jeff Graham and Curtis Conway. Williams has a more diverse arsenal.
Wide receiver DJ Moore finished his best season to date with 96 catches, 1,364 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The acquisition of Rome Odunze, a Washington star who led college football in receiving yards, and Keenan Allen, who had 1,243 receiving yards in 2023, by the Bears gave them even more offensive firepower. Together, they form a formidable trio. Williams will also benefit from a dependable tight end in Cole Kmet and versatile running back D’Andre Swift, who excels as a pass catcher.
Williams understands the unique advantage this gives him. “We have a couple of No. 1 receivers, and that makes it harder for defenses. They can’t double-team DJ because they have to worry about Keenan and Rome. I’m going to spread the ball around, and everyone’s going to have fun.”
2. A Pass-First Mentality
Caleb Williams’ mindset leans heavily toward passing, a significant shift for the Bears. In a preseason game against the Bengals, Williams flaunted his legs, but he was more likely to look downfield for receivers who were open than to run the ball himself.
However, former Bears quarterback Justin Fields often opted to scramble rather than throw in similar situations. Williams’ focus on keeping his eyes downfield while still being mobile sets him apart and aligns with a modern NFL approach.
Williams noted that balancing his natural inclination to pass with the need to run when necessary is something he’s worked on. “I like passing, even in scramble mode. I’ve been working on when to attack the line of scrimmage or take the open pass. It’s a constant battle to improve those decisions.”
His ability to stay committed to the passing game, combined with his athleticism, could give him an edge in surpassing 4,000 yards.
3. Strategic Playcalling
Under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, Williams’ potential could be realized in the Bears offense. Based on his expertise, particularly with the Seattle Seahawks, Waldron promotes an offense that is pass-heavy but balanced. Under Waldron’s leadership, Seattle placed eighth in planned passing plays, while the Bears, under their previous coordinator, trailed behind at thirty-first.
Waldron’s focus on early-down passing and allowing Williams to play off-script when necessary is expected to elevate the offense. Williams excelled at extending plays and completing long passes in college, and Waldron’s system is designed to capitalize on those strengths.
One crucial factor will be how often the Bears shift to a pass-first mentality. Waldron’s offenses in Seattle passed the ball on first down at a 56% rate, whereas the Bears only did so 49% of the time. If the Bears emphasize passing early and often, it will give Williams more opportunities to rack up yardage.
Will Williams Rewrite Bears’ Record Books?
Caleb Williams is without a doubt gifted and equipped offensively to succeed. Though it will take more than just individual talent, his first season has the potential to be historic. Maintaining a healthy lineup, adjusting their playcalling, and letting Williams reach his maximum potential will be crucial for the Bears.
If everything goes according to plan, Williams might become the first quarterback in Chicago Bears history to surpass the coveted 4,000 yards and 30 touchdown mark, authoring a new chapter in the team’s history and ushering in a new era of offensive brilliance.
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